A pair of tropical disturbances in the Atlantic Ocean are poised for potential development and could become named storms. One, off the east coast of Florida, could become a tropical depression, while another may form in the Gulf of Mexico and bring heavy rains to areas hard hit by Tropical Storm Alberto in northeast Mexico.

These systems are developing just a day after Alberto made landfall near Tampico, Mexico, and brought widespread 10 to 20 inches of rain in Mexico and considerable shoreline flooding in coastal Texas. The Associated Press reported four deaths linked to Alberto’s flooding in Mexico.

This new pair of systems could bring downpours, gusty winds and some minor coastal surge near where they come ashore.

The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters investigated the system offshore of Florida’s Atlantic coast on Friday morning, but the National Hurricane Center said the system had not yet organized sufficiently to become a depression. “However, only a small increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression before it reaches the coast of northeastern Florida or Georgia tonight,” the Hurricane Center wrote.

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The area from near Hilton Head, S.C., to Daytona Beach, Fla., could see some gusty showers from this system between late Friday and Saturday.

Experts continue to warn that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be a memorable one. Near record-warm sea surface temperatures, coupled with favorably relaxed upper-level winds associated with an emerging La Niña, could support the development of more, and more intense, tropical storms and hurricanes.

System near Florida

A swirl of low pressure was hovering about 150 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville, Fla., to start the day on Friday. On Thursday, it was a “naked swirl,” meaning it had a clear low-level circulation but there were no thunderstorms near its center. That exposed the swirling cloud pattern and made it visible from above.

Having a closed circulation is a requirement of a tropical depression or storm. But two other things have to happen, too. Winds must exceed 39 mph for designation as a tropical storm (less for a tropical depression). There also must be convection, or thunderstorms and downpours, near the system’s center.

Models indicate the low-pressure swirl will close in on Florida on Friday evening, but dry air snaking into the low will fight against its maturation. That’s why only scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across northeast Florida, coastal Georgia and perhaps southeast South Carolina. An inch or two of rain is possible in a few spots under multiple downpours, mainly between the second half of Friday and Saturday.

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Winds should be rather tame, with gusts of 30 to 35 mph at the beaches. Rip currents may be a concern, but substantial coastal flooding is not expected.

Gulf of Mexico system

The National Hurricane Center is also highlighting a developing low-pressure system over the Yucatán Peninsula. It’s drifting northwestward, and will encounter conditions favorable for development in the Bay of Campeche.

The system will have a short window of opportunity, roughly from Friday evening to midafternoon Saturday, to take advantage of warm ocean water temperatures in the extreme southwest Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, it should move ashore in northern Veracruz, Mexico, and affect that area as well as Tamaulipas.

A storm surge — or rise in ocean water above normally dry land — of up to several feet, as well as winds at the coastline gusting 40 to 50 mph, are probable, assuming the system intensifies as expected and regardless of whether it earns a name.

Weather models also simulate a general 4 to 8 inches of rain falling mostly on Saturday, with localized 10- to 12-inch totals. That could spur sporadic flooding. For now, the Hurricane Center estimates a 60 percent chance of eventual development.

Some showers and storms from this system could also sneak into far southern Texas over the weekend.

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