Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total, over/under picks and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the Denver Broncos. Be sure to check out our Los Angeles Chargers preview.
Denver Broncos (+1600 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 record: 7-10, 4th in AFC West
It’s taken 15 different quarterbacks since Peyton Manning rode off into the sunset, but the Broncos finally have a franchise signal caller in Russell Wilson. On Mar. 8, Wilson agreed to waive his no-trade clause, and the news reverberated across the league.
A quarterback of Wilson’s quality certainly doesn’t come cheap, as Denver had to part ways with TE Noah Fant (61.6 PFF grade), DL Shelby Harris (61.3 PFF grade), QB Drew Lock (60.0 PFF grade), two first-round picks, two second-round picks, and a fifth-round pick.
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In recent years, we’ve seen that teams are more willing to give up draft picks if they can attain a proven commodity. The Rams executed this strategy perfectly when they pursued Matthew Stafford, who delivered with a Super Bowl win.
Broncos fans can only hope that Wilson can produce a similar result this season. If so, it will be well worth everything the team gave up to bring Wilson to Denver.
Broncos offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, injury report
- Notable free agency departures include QB Teddy Bridgewater (73.5 PFF grade), LB Micah Kiser (78.7 PFF grade), and cornerbacks Nate Hairston (73.3 PFF grade) and Bryce Callahan (60.0 PFF grade).
- Added QB Russell Wilson (73.9 PFF grade), OT Tom Compton (86.5 PFF grade), DE Randy Gregory (78.6 PFF grade), DL D.J. Jones (73.2 PFF grade), OL Billy Turner (66.2 PFF grade), CB K’Wuan Williams (63.3 PFF grade), and LB Alex Singleton (52.4 PFF grade).
- Drafted Oklahoma LB Nik Bonitto (64th pick), UCLA TE Greg Dulcich (80th pick), Pittsburgh CB Demarri Mathis (115th pick), Iowa State DL Eyioma Uwazurike (116th pick), Oklahoma S Delarrin Turner-Yell (152nd pick), Samford WR Montrell Washington (162nd pick), Washington OL Luke Wattenberg (171st pick), Wisconsin DL Matt Henningsen (206th pick), and Wisconsin CB Faion Hicks (232nd pick).
Denver Broncos 2022 schedule
Week 1: at Seahawks
Week 2: Texans
Week 3: vs. 49ers
Week 4: at Raiders
Week 5: vs. Colts
Week 6: at Chargers
Week 7: vs. Jets
Week 8: vs. Jaguars (Wembley Stadium)
Week 9: Bye
Week 10: at Titans
Week 11: vs. Raiders
Week 12: at Panthers
Week 13: at Ravens
Week 14: vs. Chiefs
Week 15: vs. Cardinals
Week 16: at Rams
Week 17: at Chiefs
Week 18: vs. Chargers
NFL betting lines: Broncos win total
O/U 9.5 wins
This win total is drawing some interest because, in mid-July, I played Denver to win under 10.5 games. Now, the win total is down to 9.5 with the over juiced to -140. A difference in one game could be paramount depending on which side you’re on in terms of a win total.
My projections of the AFC West are that I expect it will be a challenge for any team to create much separation within the division. The Chiefs are still kings of the hill until proven otherwise, so it’s hard to slot any team above them.
I think this number is right where it should be because if we expect Wilson will make Denver an above .500 team, we’re probably looking at nine to ten wins.
And while the thought of middling the win total did cross my mind, I’m ultimately content with my initial play at under 10.5.
However, I do think this Broncos team has more upside than downside. As a result, I’m more inclined to bet the under at 10.5 than 9.5. At the current number, it’s just a lean. Let’s be honest, a lot of these AFC West games will come down to the fourth quarter and having Wilson under center is a big edge for Denver given his past success late in games.
The bottom line is this win total is one of the tightest on the board with the Broncos likely winning nine or 10 games this season.
The Pick
Lean: Under 9.5 wins
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Expert best bets, futures, and props
Javonte Williams O/U 1199.5 rushing and receiving yards (FanDuel)
North Carolina product Javonte Williams projects to be ahead of Melvin Gordon III as the Broncos starting running back on the depth chart.
Both running backs give the Broncos tremendous balance as each had identical rushing attempts (203) for the season. Williams (903 rushing yards) did play one more game than Gordon but still finished with 15 fewer rushing yards.
But where the younger player did have the edge over the veteran was in targets out of the backfield. Gordon drew 38 targets resulting in 213 yards, while Williams finished with 53 targets for 316 receiving yards.
Williams’ longest reception was for 42 yards, and he finished with three touchdowns compared to Gordon’s two touchdowns and longest reception of 30 yards.
Williams also picked up three more first downs than Gordon, so I’m interested in him getting the bulk of opportunities as an outlet in third-down situations.
In 2020 when Wilson played the full season, he used his running back Chris Carson quite a bit in the passing game. Carson played only 12 games but had 287 yards on 46 targets.
Those numbers should bode well for Williams if he and Wilson can develop some rapport. As a result, I think the over is worth a look for Willams’ rushing/receiving yardage prop, especially when you factor in his contributions as a pass catcher this season.
The Pick
Javonte Williams Over 1199.5 rushing and receiving yards
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